insights

A collection of 98 posts

insights

Are Coins Becoming Scarce?

Bitcoin exchange reserves have been dwindling since mid-2022, and new ETFs may accelerate this trend. Should we expect a reserve scarcity and much higher prices? Bitcoin ETFs Matter Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a disappointment so far, attracting net inflows of just $1.5 billion in the 15 days ending

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Is US Debt Issue an Opportunity for Crypto?

The immense size of the US national debt has become a hotly debated issue. Some argue that it will destabilize the traditional financial system and promote independent currencies like gold and cryptocurrencies. I aim to investigate this issue further. Current US Debt Is Not Too Large The US national debt

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Why Ethereum Underperforms despite Lower Supply?

Ethereum has significantly underperformed Bitcoin both this year and following the Merge, despite transitioning to a deflationary asset. Why is this the case, and what might the future hold? Less Ethereum, More Bitcoin So far this year, Ethereum's growth has been nearly half that of Bitcoin, increasing by

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Will Commodities Strike Back in 2024?

Lower commodity prices have been one of the key factors behind the recent rally in most assets, including crypto; however, this trend may reverse this year. Commodities Have Been Helpful for Disinflation After a plunge during the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent recovery, commodity prices spiked in the first quarter of

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When Will Coinbase Shorts Capitulate?

As Coinbase shares continue to defy gravity, I wonder about the pain threshold of the remaining (and likely still sizable) shorts and strive to make fundamental sense of what’s happening. Coinbase Stock Rally This year, Coinbase stock soared nearly four times, far outperforming both Bitcoin and virtually all other

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Tightened

As the bond market begins to price in the end of the monetary policy tightening cycle, it’s tempting to think that the crypto winter is also over, and a new, longer-term bull trend will emerge. Why It Matters for Crypto The crypto winter was caused primarily by large-scale tightening

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Bitcoin Becomes Independent from the Stock Market

The correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market recently dropped to near zero. This occurred as Bitcoin's value increased along with gold, while stock prices declined due to the conflict in the Middle East. Could this be a new normal? Zero Beta October marked the second occasion this

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GBTC Outflows May Dwarf Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs

When a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, GBTC will likely also be able to convert into an ETF. Investors who have been trapped in GBTC for years, as well as recent buyers betting on a reduced discount to NAV, will have the opportunity to convert their fund shares into coins

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Why Did Ethereum Futures ETFs Fail?

Newly launched ETH futures ETFs failed to gain significant flows and assets. Why did it happen and what are implications for broader crypto adoption by traditional finance investors? No Interest for New ETFs Last week, the long-awaited Ethereum futures ETFs began trading on US exchanges. On October 2, several asset

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Will Higher Rates Prolong Crypto Winter?

US Treasury yields have broken out to a new cycle high, which appears to be a warning sign for long-duration assets. What is happening, and how will it affect crypto? New High for the Rate Last week, US Treasury yields reached a new cycle high, breaking above the previous maximums

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Is the Lido Token Undervalued Amid Rising Staking Activity?

Lido's total value locked has risen to the highest level since May 2022, but its native token price remains depressed. Is it a buying opportunity for the Lido native token? Ethereum Staking Boom Staking is booming despite the 'crypto winter,' thanks in part to Ethereum'

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Bitcoin Leads Large-Cap Tech Stocks

This year, Bitcoin has served as a reliable leading indicator for large-cap technology stocks, rallying strongly in the first quarter. In hindsight, this was an excellent entry point for investing in large-cap tech. However, Bitcoin declined during the summer. Why did this happen, and does it suggest trouble for large-cap

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Assessing Ethereum Futures ETF

There is a flurry of recent applications for an Ethereum futures ETF. Is it likely to be approved? How large would it be and would it affect Ethereum price? The Race for a New ETF While there is continued obsession with the possibility of a physical Bitcoin ETF, in August,

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Will Oil Derail Crypto?

Brent oil rallied in July, breaking its nearly year-long downtrend. If oil prices continue to soar, it could pose a problem for cryptocurrencies, as well as most other asset classes. This is because a substantial increase in oil prices could cast doubt on the narrative of an inflation slowdown, which

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Is Inflation Threat to Crypto Over?

Monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, caused by high US inflation, decimated crypto and most other assets last year. However, core inflation peaked in September 2022, and recent inflation news has been encouraging. Does this signal an all-clear for crypto now? Inflation Slowdown High US inflation was a primary reason

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How to Trade Ethereum Options Imbalance

I noticed an unusually large amount of Ethereum call options at the $1900 strike. I think that the position of such size is more likely to be a covered call selling rather than a speculative bet, so dealers may be long calls. It suggests a dampening effect on prices and

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Is Bitcoin ETF a Game Changer?

In the last two weeks, several major ETF providers filed documents to launch a physical Bitcoin ETF, potentially opening their clients a gateway to crypto. How significant are potential new flows into Bitcoin? ETF Is an Entry into the World of Big Money Recent applications come from Blackrock, Invesco, and

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Crypto Bull Market Gets Narrow

Bitcoin dominance recently rose to the highest in more than 2 years, and that resonates with the current stock market propped up by just a few companies. Should we be worried? Bitcoin Outperforms Bitcoin dominance (defined as the Bitcoin market cap divided by the total crypto market cap) roses to

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Are Crypto Options Too Cheap?

Crypto implied volatility fell to a record low, making options historically cheap. Why did it happen and how to trade it? Rock-Bottom Implied Volatility After spiking in November 2022, crypto implied volatility has been in a relentless downtrend, taking down the DVOL indexes of both Bitcoin and Ethereum to record

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Crypto in Context of US Debt Ceiling Drama

Country CDS (bp) Brazil 228 Morocco 186 United States  178 Oman 177 Mexico 124 Algeria 148 Bulgaria 144 Greece 123

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Is High-Risk Tech Drop Warning for Crypto?

Ranking Company Weight Year-to-date gain (loss) 1 year gain (loss) 1  Tesla, Inc.   10.1% 39%  -40%   2 Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Class A   7.48% -7%   -35% 3  Roku, Inc. Class A   7.26% 37%  -42%  4  Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A  6.62%   64%  -44%  5 Shopify, Inc.

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Is Ethereum Safer than Bitcoin?

The implied volatility (IV) of Ethereum reached an all-time low, becoming approximately equal to Bitcoin’s IV. Why did it happen, and how can you trade it? Ethereum IV Plunges After spiking in November 2022, Ethereum IV was in a relentless downtrend. It recently dropped below the March minimum and

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Time to Move into Altcoins?

Bitcoin was the best cryptocurrency this year among the largest coins, presumably reflecting a safe-haven bid. Will this safe-haven flow become distributed across a broader crypto universe and not only Bitcoin? Which altcoins may benefit the most? Bitcoin Outperforms Bitcoin has vastly outperformed most other coins this year. The safe

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Ripple of Change?

The recent rally of XRP suggests that the market takes a more crypto-positive view on the long-standing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Should traders follow the rally and how will it affect broader crypto? XRP Rally XRP (Ripple) skyrocketed by about a

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Recession Is Coming

The current pricing of the US Treasuries suggests that the market is almost sure of an imminent US recession. How does that affect crypto investors and traders? Short-Term US Treasuries Rally Short-term US Treasuries are normally very boring securities having low volatility. These bonds have no credit risk and only